This memo uses updated project information since our December 2020 and May 2021 analysis.

Coal-to-power today is exceedingly modest outside South Africa

Using the latest data, 36 coal-fired power plants totaling ~54 GW of installed capacity provide about a third of all electricity produced on the African continent (Table 1). Yet, 86% of this capacity is in one country, South Africa.

Table 1: Coal Power

Country/Region	Power Stations (#)	Capacity (MW)	Percent of World
World	2,449	2,059,358	100
China	1,082	1,042,947	51
United States	252	233,621	11
India	281	229,247	11
Africa	36	54,266*	2.64
Of which:
South Africa	19	46,672*	2.21
Morocco	4	4,257	.21
Zimbabwe	3	1,810*	.09
Botswana	2	732	.04
Zambia	2	330	.01
Mauritius	3	195	.01
Madagascar	1	120	.01
Namibia	1	120	.01
Senegal	1	30	.001

^{Source: Global Energy Monitor (2021). *Includes existing projects where additional units are under refurbishment or construction.}

What about new coal?

Africa’s current coal capacity is a fraction of the global total, but many fear a potential boom on the continent, especially in countries with domestic coal resources. As of 2021, the Global Coal Plant Tracker lists 22 potential new coal plants (excluding refurbishments and existing complexes) across Africa with a total capacity of 13 GW. To assess how many of these projects will actually happen, we analyzed publicly-available information for each project and rated the likelihood of completion (see Table 2). Here’s what we found:

• Only one coal plant with just 0.3 GW appears likely to commission anytime soon.
• Nine plants are already shelved or very unlikely. A further 12 projects of 6.9 GW are unclear; progress is possible, but they are all in a very early phase.
• Zimbabwe, a country notorious for announcing projects that rarely reach fruition, is the main outlier. It is home to the only project rated as likely and a quarter of total pipeline capacity. The 2.8 GW Sengwa project (previously rated Unclear) lost its financial backing in June 2021 and has been downgraded to No/Unlikely.

Conclusion: We remain confident that the future of coal in Africa is dead.

Table 2: New Coal Projects in Africa

^{Source: Global Energy Monitor (2021) and other publicly available data.
Likely: Project at an advanced stage of development and expected to commission soon.
Unclear: Project at an early stage of development or lacking any clear signs of significant recent progress.
No/Unlikely: Project has been shelved, suffered major setbacks, or has shown no progress for multiple years.}