October 7, 2020
Mapping the Global Market for Advanced Nuclear
By Jessica Lovering, Todd Moss, Jacob Kincer, Jackie Kempfer, Josh Freed

The Hub and Third Way collaborated to create a new interactive map that provides a first-of-a-kind ‘nuclear readiness’ assessment and electricity demand projections in 2050 for 148 countries. The map, found here, has two indicators that give an idea of the potential market scale for advanced nuclear power:

  • Electricity Demand Gap in 2050. The size of the circles of the map display the projected additional electricity demand over the next 3 decades.
  • Nuclear Readiness Score. The color (green-yellow-red) corresponds to the assessed readiness of a country based on a 10-point checklist.

More information on the projection and scoring methodology is here.

The map also includes contextual data that can be filtered:

  • The World Bank’s income groupings. Low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high, based on GNI per capita (US$ Atlas method).
  • The World Resources Institute’s projected water stress ratings in 2040. Nuclear powered desalination could play a role in addressing the growing demand for potable water and provide an option for areas with acute water shortages.
  • The 2020 NTI Nuclear Security Index ratings that assess actions related to supporting global nuclear security efforts.
  • The 2020 NTI Nuclear Security Index rankings of 46 countries with nuclear facilities to assess actions to protect those facilities against sabotage.

The full interactive map can be found here.

What the Map Shows

The interactive map enables users to draw their own conclusions, but a few immediate takeaways:

  • Nuclear power isn’t only for rich countries. Markets for nuclear power are found on all continents and in all income groups. Most of the largest potential markets are in rapidly growing countries of South and East Asia.
  • We will need vast amounts of new electricity. Global electricity demand will more than double by 2050, and 90% will be outside of High Income markets. This is both a major challenge and a major opportunity.
  • Over 80% of new electricity demand will be in countries that are ready—or nearly ready—for advanced nuclear technology. These fast-growing emerging markets are poised to take advantage of these rapidly developing new technologies.

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